Galfond Challenge speculation
A few days ago I recognised there's a betting site offering odds to Galfond Challenge. I became interested instantly because the bet offers really good entertainment value and there would also be possible +EV to be found in the offered odds. My problem was that I don't really know how good each of the players are, so that made my bet's +EV quite questionable, at least.
However, I decided to place a small bet on Venividi1993 with the odds 1.83 as to my knowledge he is a good high stakes reg, and Galfond hasn't played much online lately, to my knowledge. The other bet that I was interested in was ActionFreak @ 1.70. As Galfond gave him only 1:1 odds in their side bet, he may be even tougher opponent than Venividi. (He gave venividi 2:1 odds in side bet)
Have any of you bet anything on Galfond Challenges? What would be your picks with the odds available (below)? Or has any of you beasts even thought about challenging Galfond? 😀
Here are the odds offered to other matches and the details of each challenge match:
ActionFreak (1.70) vs. Galfond (2.20) / 150/300 plo, 15k hands, sidebet: 150k:150k
Jungleman (2.00) vs. Galfond (1.85) / 100/200 plo, 7.5k hands, sidebet tbd
Brandon Adams (2.40) vs. Galfond (1.60) / 100/200 plo, 40 hours live poker, sidebet: 150k:150k
If there is value in some of those odds, you can bet relatively big (MAX 10k EUR) on this market that is very very small niche in betting (how often do you see poker challenge odds anywhere 😎 ):
Yup, that's basically the reason why I'm so interested about the bet 😎 Even in sports betting, you can find 5fig stakes limits only in the biggest leagues nowadays. They also had 5k limits to the other challenge matches but they're now decreased to 200€ as the match vs Venividi is already running. I think they'll rise the limits again at some point.
It'd be interesting to hear predictions from other people too. Venividi had a good start winning about 70k in the first day of the challenge. The second day went about break even, so Venividi is now up 73,6k after 1370/25k hands played. Unfortunately, I cannot give any further analysis about the match because I only barely know the rules of PLO...
Hey, great thread!
I have played with some of them a little. My guess before any playing would've been:
Galfond vs. Venividi - 1.
Galfond vs. Freak - 2.
Galfond vs. Jungle - 2.
Galfond vs. Adams - 1.
The reasoning been that even though all of them are great players 50k hands is such a huge challenge that I would've bet that mental aspects of such challenge would weigh in more than their overall level of skill.
Venividi has always struck me as a very GTO oriented player who I thought would be a bit a head of Phil in GTO and maybe even overall strategy. I'm not sure about his mental-game but I thinks it's extremely hard to find a player who would be stronger in it than Phil. And - like stated above - given it's huge impact in a challenge this long, I would've guessed that at some point Veni can't handle the variance as well as Phil and we would see some of his game deteriorating and Phil taking it down. As far as we can tell I've been very wrong in deed. Veni has most likely ran really well but his game has also been top notch. Also, Phil is a great at adjusting his game but given that Veni tries to play as GTO as possible it's hard to adjust, because as we all know: against perfect GTO adjustments don't help. Also noteworthy: with strong GTO fundamentals your game is far less likely to deteriorate like it could if you rely heavily on just adjusting your game. Obviously we're still pretty far from perfect GTO in PLO but it's something to take into an account when analyzing these matches.
ActionFreak is just inhumane. He's insanely though and,at least for my skill-level, impossible to find any leaks from. When you play against him it's like playing against GTO bot who somehow knows what you're holding all the time. Funny enough - I have the same feeling when I'm playing against fellow BOP-pro EEE27 (who I tried to get to take this challenge but he chickened out). Mr.E when you're reading this: know that you might be though in online poker but you declining this challenge made a part of my love for you die out.
So yeah, just based on my personal experiences I would've bet Freak on this one, even before Veni's results.
I have played only a couple of hands against Jungle and not at all against Adams so can't really tell anything special about them. Jungle I know to be an animal (if from nothing else just how he drank both Pampo and Joni under table in the Patrick Antonius Poker challenge live cash games - while still keeping his game quite intact) and with Adams I'm not sure - I think the 40 hours of live poker just isn't the same as 50k hands in online. There's a loads of more variance so that 2,4 might be actually even playable but... I just don't want to bet against legend that is Mister Galfond.
For now it seems like the newer more GTO oriented new online end bosses are winning - but I wouldn't call it a victory just yet. I have nothing against Veni but given my minor man-crush to Phil I would like to see him, if not winning, at least making a comeback in the near future and make this match even more interesting.
No matter what happens - It's a great time to be a rail-bird!
With close to a milly downswing, I guess it's +EV for Galfond to suspend the match as he explained he can't focus enough to play his A game. It will be interesting to see if he tries to make a comeback against VeniVidi or if he choose to wave the white flag and moves to his next opponent in the challenge.
This challenge is getting better each day, we will see some mixed games action 😎 😎 😎