Beyond Bluffing: The Poker Concepts That Help Players Make Better Decisions
Poker playing has changed dramatically over the past few years. The advent of Game Theory Optimal solvers and advanced mathematics models has completely transformed the ways many people talk about the game. Minimum defense frequency. Unexploitable randomization. Polarized hands. These are just some of the complex terms you might hear from a modern poker coach or even at a casino table.
But do you really need to do all the homework and understand these terms to be a better poker player? Probably not. While they might be important to Stephen Chidwick in a Triton High Roller against the best players in the world, your average low to medium stakes player is likely much better served by learning a few key, basic concepts and how to apply them quickly while at the table.
EV or Expected Value is Arguably the Fundamental Concept
Expected value is the average profit or loss of a bet if you repeated it hundreds of times. Knowing this can stop poker players making decisions based on prior results that were actually mathematically good plays.
For an easy example, most poker players know that just because you lost last time you went all in preflop with Aces doesn’t mean it was/is a bad play.
The EV of going all in preflop with aces is always above 50%, meaning it is a positive EV play that will win you more hands than it loses in the long run. Against any random two, AA is around 85% chance to win.
(Which is not to say open shove AA is a good idea in all cases, because you can sometimes get more winnings if you raise smaller – but you risk running into a better hand on the flop.)
One way to think about playing poker is to always be trying to make positive EV plays. Don’t think about the results – just whether or not the play would win if you repeated the situation. Going all in after flopping a set of aces and losing to a runner-runner straight does not make that a bad play – and EV can quantify that.
How Poker Concepts Can Apply to Other Gambling
The idea of expected value is actually key across many kinds of gambling. Online casino players can use the concept of EV to evaluate bonus offers, for example, by working out how much the wagering requirement effects potential profitability.
For precise breakdowns of the factors that can change the EV of online casino gameplay, players from across Canada visit online casino comparison sites like Casino.org. These sites compare bonuses across operators, listing precise details like bonus sizes and wagering requirements or cashout and time limits, meaning casino fans can make informed choices.
The best way to understand lot of that information, is to know at least the basics behind gambling games like EV and RTP.
For a concrete example – consider a $10 bonus with a 10x wagering and a $20 bonus with a 20x wagering requirement. Which is better?
Well, any casino gambler should know about house edge. Say you’re playing a 98% RTP blackjack game with perfect play.
The calculation goes like this:
Bonus EV = Bonus Value – (Wagering Requirement x House Edge)
So for a $10 bonus with 10x wagering, you’d need to play $100 to complete it. At 2% house edge, the full calculation is:
$10 – (2% of $100) – for an expected value of $8. Which is positive EV.
At $20 and 20x the calculation is:
$20 – 2% of $400 for a total EV of $12.
This is also a +EV bonus. In reality though, casino games are rarely only 2% house edge and other factors come into play like time limits and maximum wins.
Range and Positioning Are the Core Basics
The importance of positioning in poker has been known for decades at this point. Classic books by legends like Doyle Brunson have had some of these core ideas nailed down for years.
However, when combined with the idea of ranges and charts, as well well as some old-fashioned watching the players at your table, an average player can quickly nail down what hands they should and shouldn’t be playing
A range is what cards an opponent might potentially have. It is very common for new players to “put” opponents on hands without really knowing why. You might just feel they have an ace, if they bet when there is an Ace on the board.
Experienced players know that thinking in ranges is more adaptable and important. For example, a player who raises from an early position (when there are many players ahead of them who could have better hands) is probably confident in their hand – meaning you can put them on a range of say AK, high pocket pairs and suited broadways.
Conversely, a player who raises from the small blind with no one else but the big blind in the pot could have a much wider range of hands. They might have small pocket pairs and low suited connectors, but they could also have AK and high pocket pairs too.
The concept goes much, much deeper – but in general, thinking about your opponent’s actions on every street of the hand, as well as their position at the table, can inform your idea of their range.
